@SteveHess offered up a great response to my most recent article, "Russia v. Ukraine v. The Rest of the World." Like with almost everyone, Steve doesn't always post in lockstep agreement with everything I write, but he always writes with imagination and historical knowledge. He's a great writer, as well. I'm happy to present his thoughts, here.
Fantasyland speculations by me.
Your assessment of the key actors is probably what informed mine, so to say I agree with you would be an understatement of epic proportions. Jedi mind control indeed.
As for NATO. You’re right. Western Europe has become a slovenly place with unmerited pride. They’re enjoying their hammock.
600,000,000. That’s a lot of people. A lot of people who don’t have aircraft carriers. Would we be better off with a woke, armed Europe rather than a sedate prideful hipster commune? It’s a trade. Hard to affect a strongarm coup without an army. Hard to imagine a leader inside the continent that could sweep to power without an armed contingent. So there’s my “pro” NATO. Let sleeping dogs lie.
The alternative . . . mutually assured destruction on a “non-planetary” scale? Maybe. I mean Jesus Christ. Ukraine? Stopped Russia? Seriously? Who saw that coming? (Except for Biden’s puppet master). Totally the best trap ever. “Look at the dork! Go ahead and steal again!” The worst-case scenario is a limited nuclear exchange and a direct decapitation attack on Russia in response. This may have huge implications for conventional warfare. You can’t get past my guns with your army. Any of you. Defensive war at the technological frontier is impenetrable? Conquest is unavailable?
Multiply that by proven world conquerors: Italy (Rome), Spain, France, Britain, and Germany. They’ve all rotated through armed empires and world domination. Yes, Mongolia, China, and the Ottomans have been similarly successful. Do we need another power center? Would that even matter in the historical sense?
I think we do. European hegemony needs to be a thing, it’s not the threat it was. Ukraine demonstrates this. Solidify and stabilize. A crusade of woke in conflict with communism and Islamic fascism? No blood for oily French pricks. Go. God’s peace be upon you.
Plus, we have enough to cover here. Can you imagine if we spent all the money in Ukraine on Mexico? Nicaragua? California? Yeah, there’s room for European hegemony.
Putin? That’s how it used to work. Some power-hungry maniac decides which river will suit them better as a border and suddenly . . .
Europe isn’t balkanized anymore? That’s the end result. What’s Europe? Not Islam. Or maybe it is? Theocratic cultural values extend into North Africa vs. economic values going the other direction. We’ll see who captures Jerusalem this time around . . .
Can Putin take a sleepy Europe? No. He might have had designs on the Baltics, but the best he gets is White Russia rejoining. US withdrawal of support for Europe is the endgame of the Ukrainian intervention. We’re done here? Good. See you later then. All out. Biden’s not that smart, but someone is.
So again: Ukraine is the US ticket out of the European theater. Let them consolidate and then treat with THAT gang. Also: enjoy your migrant population, let’s compare education results in 2035. Long conversion timeline with sudden adjustments.
Japan is the other ticket. Same plan.
At home: this whole “Canada” and “Mexico” delusion? Let’s just add a few provinces and territories and improve our soccer and hockey teams in two quick annexations. Who’s going to stop us? Hell, Panama is really the natural border. And a passport to go to Calgary? Really? No. Europe block, US block, SE Asia block and we all take advantage of the southern hemisphere and India. The left doesn’t believe in borders anyway and can we get some of that El Salvador prison space? I’m in.
Now that 👆 is not understanding geopolitics! 😉 It’s also inevitable. So . . .
Stay in your hemisphere, police your area, and play nice. Get used to the idea of federalism. Intercinine wars are so last century. Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with Eastasia.
If you’re content to disarm and be managed by another culture? Well. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
So Putin dies, and Ukraine is restored to its original integrity. Cranial ventilation disorder or cancer. Depends on the nukes.
The US finally withdraws from postwar Europe. NATO will stay in place until Frermany(?) Spengland(?) Greetaly(?). Someone ceases to exist independently and there are no signatories anymore. That’s real.
Japan reemerges. Kim’s sister starts a war and Korea reunifies under the US hegemony.
Islam? Well, that Ottoman Empire idea is gaining popularity in Pakistan due to Turkish propaganda. However, the religion of peace is only thriving in the 3rd world. The religion of envy? Clean-yourselves-up-‘Stan. I still see Russian incursion as a possibility while Putin exists.
Isolation? No. Trade is critical. Fairtrade. Big enough to make you comply? Yup. Too big to fail. This is basically an exchange of oligarchy for empire-building. Be one with your friends. We’re done with allies. Follow the rules or you are excluded. China has failed. Let’s demonstrate the cost.
The whole colonization of space thing is going to dramatically alter things in the late century. Look forward. The space race is the most important development on the horizon. Asteroid mining for rare “earth” minerals. Cheaper than trying to civilize an area . . .
Once we establish our borders off-planet, we re-enter an age of colonization. Whoever is in volume better make sure they build it rather than simply milking it.
Hey, mom! I’m gonna be a space pirate!!!